There is only one way to interpret Donald Trump’s agenda in 2024. Believe him.
It may be difficult to take at his word a man who often sounds like a deranged carnival barker. Yes, he’s a peddler of conspiracy theories and tried to foist the biggest lie of all on the American people after his 2020 defeat. But dismiss his foreshadowing of his plans in a return to the White House at your peril.
Believe him when he says he will round up illegal immigrants in a penal colony as a prelude to mass deportations. Don’t doubt that he will be a dictator, as he says, “for a day.” Doubt only the timeline. Believe that Trump will surround himself with sycophants who have passed loyalty tests and are bent on aiding him on his mission of vengeance and punishment against political enemies.
Worry about the future of NATO, trade deals and support for Ukraine in its fight against Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion. Despair for a justice system that Trump will make his personal vehicle for retribution. Worry big time about the rule of law and tenets of democracy in our largest trade partner and long-standing ally. The 2024 Trump has channelled the language of Adolf Hitler, praised some of the world’s most autocratic strongmen, and called for shoplifters to be shot.
Don’t believe there will be guardrails. You may have thought they were absent during the first Trump presidency, but that term will look like old school political orthodoxy compared to what a return could bring.
And believe that you should be afraid what that will mean for this country and its political leadership when it comes to defence spending, foreign policy, trade, climate change and the concept of co-operation and friendship between neighbours. A possible Trump election will become the biggest Canadian political story in 2024.
Trump may have been denied a place on Republican primary ballots in Colorado and Maine for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, but this seems only temporary pending a Supreme Court ruling. Regardless, it hardly appears debilitating. Yes, he faces 91 felony charges but appears ready to win the nomination from a courtroom if need be.
Trump has lapped, many times over, his challengers in the Republican race in polls and the first votes in Iowa are due in days. U.S. President Joe Biden inspires no love from the American electorate, and his age and the anger all incumbents face from an anxious electorate could have the Democrat swimming upstream for a second term.
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The implications for a Canadian government dealing with a second term Trump are almost incomprehensible -- and as unpredictable as the man with whom they will be dealing.
When Justin Trudeau and his Liberals were forced to negotiate a new NAFTA with Trump in 2017, fighting off punitive trade tariffs and dealing with the bellowing and insults from Washington sucked all the oxygen out of government departments. Though his government won deserved credit for dealing with Trump, Trudeau and his foreign affairs minister of the time, Chrystia Freeland, were ultimately held in contempt by the Trump White House.
The Trudeau government tried to work around Trump, in what was dubbed the “doughnut strategy” by building stronger ties with U.S. mayors, governors and Congressional leaders. A similar gambit might help again, but it cannot replace strong relations between prime minister and president.
Trudeau may argue that experience and the MAGA tendencies of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre should earn him another term. But the MAGA label may not fit comfortably on Poilievre, who could look moderate compared to the chaos to the south.
There is no reason to believe Poilievre would fare any better with the bully in the White House. The one certainty is whoever wins the next Canadian election would have to make dealing with Trump their top priority.
Today marks the third anniversary of the insurrection. A Washington Post-University of Maryland poll shows that today fewer Americans consider it a violent action and fewer feel Trump was to blame. More than one-in-three Americans believe Biden’s election was illegitimate.
The big lie will not die. The looming challenge for a Canadian government only looks more daunting. Planning for this -- to the extent possible -- should be well underway in both parties aiming to lead this country.
