The Blue Jays don't want to come out and say it, but they apparently feel that the key to improved run production is creating better game plans for their hitters.
General manager Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro stated at their end-of-season news conferences in October that they plan to investigate how and why the team fell short of expectations on offence  in 2023.
Since then, not much has been said about the specifics of their discovery. Hitting strategist Dave Hudgens lost his big-league job and was reassigned, while bench coach Don Mattingly had offensive co-ordinator added to his list of duties.
Outside of those changes, the structure remained intact. Guillermo Martinez is returning as hitting coach and Hunter Mense will be back as his assistant. From the club's viewpoint the staff wasn't the problem, but the messaging occasionally was.
"I think that it's easy to see. First, second time through the order, we struggled at times," Jays manager John Schneider said during the winter meetings in Nashville this month. "So, I think having just a very (clear) plan from the get-go is something we're going to try to attack. Seemed like we scored late … and you're trying to battle your way back into it, so just having that mentality from the get-go."
Schneider has a point. The Jays scored just 64 runs in the first inning last season vs. a league average of 86.8. It was their lowest output of any frame, which is odd because it's also the only inning when a club's best hitters are guaranteed an at-bat. The production improved late with 248 runs from innings seven through nine, well above the league average of 220.8.
The lack of early runs meant the Jays were frequently playing from behind. That's a problem because they went 56-22 when scoring first, 33-51 when they didn't. The poor starts were a primary reason why they never came close to sniffing a division title.
So, what was the cause? Well, the Jays are remaining vague, perhaps to avoid providing opponents with valuable intel. But mixed in between the non-answers and corporate speak are clues that the organization felt it didn’t enter enough games with a proper plan, and was then slow to react.
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"By no means was there any complacency," Atkins said of a team that finished tied for 14th in runs with 746. "I want to make sure that's clear before I say this: I think we've just learned how the game adjusted to us, and now see a way to adjust back in a more specific way. As we use the words streamline and individualize (the plan), it's the information that was working and wasn't working as well, and we now see an opportunity to shift in a small way."
The easiest way to upgrade the lineup would be by bringing in a couple of big bats, but so far that hasn't happened. Gold Glove centre-fielder Kevin Kiermaier re-signed for one year, while light-hitting utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa was handed $15 million (U.S.) over two seasons.
Kiner-Falefa is best known for his defence; with a career .660 OPS, he's not going to do much with the bat. That means even if the Jays add a premium designated hitter, they're going to need more production out of the guys who were already here to have a bounceback season.Â
It's no coincidence that when the offence peaked in 2021, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was in top form. The Jays scored the third-most runs in the majors that season, and an MVP-calibre performance by the up-and-coming Dominican was the top reason why.
Two years ago, Guerrero slashed .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers and 111 RBIs. This past season, those numbers fell to .264/.345/.444 with 26 home runs and 94 RBIs. Opposing pitchers fed him a steady diet of pitches low and away, yet Guerrero chased and pulled more than ever before.
If the Jays offence is ever going to live up to the once-lofty hype, Guerrero needs to be much better than he has been the last two seasons, even if the organization chooses not to be so blunt.
"I've said this for a while, I think there's some unfair expectations on him," Schneider said of the guy who was billed as a generational talent upon his arrival in 2019. "But I think he's as motivated and as driven as I've ever seen him right now. He understands that he doesn't have to do all of the heavy lifting.
"He's a big part of our offence, and a lot of times for him it's kind of just passing the baton to the next guy. So, he's focused, he definitely is, and I think he's at the point in his career where he really wants to make an impact not only from an offensive standpoint, but kind of a leader in our clubhouse as well."
Guerrero isn't the only one who needs to step up. The Jays also require better versions of George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho. Of the 2023 contributors, Bo Bichette and Kiermaier were the only regulars who met or exceeded expectations aside from Brandon Belt, who's now a free agent. Everyone else played below, or didn't receive enough at-bats to qualify.
Something has to change, and the Jays believe with the talent in place, it will.
"I think you look at the team that we have already, it's an exciting lineup to write out already as it stands," Schneider said before Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa signed. "I think you combine that with where guys are in their career that we already do have, and the resources that are available that our ownership has allowed us to kind of tap into. It's an exciting time, it really is, and I think that this group is definitely ready to win right now."
It better be. With only two years remaining before Guerrero and Bichette are eligible to hit free agency, there's only so much time left for the core, as currently constructed, to put the pieces together.
The talent is there; the results haven't been. Maybe a plan of attack at the plate will help change that. Based on the lack of meaningful additions this winter, it might be their only shot.
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