After 18 weeks of NFL action, the hunt for the Super Bowl begins in earnest with super wild-card weekend.
The pregame narrative: From the upcoming six-game slate, I've highlighted three picks I'm on early in the week. The Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs should fall below their point total in frigid conditions, while the Detroit Lions are built to score — especially at home. On Monday, back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover against the slumping Philadelphia Eagles.
[Best Bet]: Dolphins/Chiefs under 44 points (-113)
The Dolphins have the No. 2 scoring offence in the NFL, averaging 27.5 points per game. But they haven't looked the part all that often in recent games.
Miami has scored fewer points than its average in four of the past five games, including just 14 points on Sunday Night Football in a loss to the Buffalo Bills. That game featured a pair of top-five scoring offences — in the peak conditions of South Florida — but finished with an underwhelming 35 total points.
Due up in the wild-card round are the Chiefs, who've been far better on defence than on offence this year. Kansas City ranks No. 2 in both scoring and total defence, while the offence is 15th in points per game (20.6).
In November, when these teams met at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany, they completely undershot a 51.5-point projected total in KC's 21-14 win. Now, they're at Arrowhead Stadium for a do-or-die rematch.
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Weather should never be the only factor you consider for a wager, but extreme conditions are noteworthy. Early reports from The Weather Network indicate that Saturday night will "feel like" -25 C with prominent wind.
A bitterly cold game featuring one of the league's best defences is not a recipe for points.
Key stat: Kansas City hit the under in 12 of 17 games this season, which was tied for the most in the NFL.
Quick picks
Buccaneers +3 (-122): The Eagles looked unbeatable entering December, but the season has spiralled from there.
Philly is just 1-5 in its past six games — 0-6 ATS — and all of those losses came by at least a field goal. A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts both suffered injuries in Week 18, and their respective statuses will be important to monitor throughout the week.
The Buccaneers don't have much to brag about after a 9-0 win over the lowly Carolina Panthers on Sunday. On the bright side, that was Tampa's fourth ATS win in its past five games, and the team has an impressive 11-6 ATS mark overall.
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Rams/Lions over 51.5 points (-112): Matthew Stafford knows how to sling it around Ford Field, and hopefully, he can contribute to a high-scoring battle in his return with the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams have hit the over in six of their past seven games, and Stafford's resurgence is a big part of that. He has a 109.5 QB rating and a 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio in his past six games.
Opposite Stafford is the former Ram, Jared Goff, whose Lions have the fifth-ranked scoring offence (25.6 PPG). Detroit has hit the over in four consecutive home games, as well as 11 of 17 games overall this season.
